A hard-money environment with limited conventional breakout/pullback setups, many of which are close to their earnings release.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Uptrend

⦿ Swing: Upswing

⦿ Momentum: Positive but worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• About 41% of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are better than those of last week's, but we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Uptrend

The current market is in a confirmed uptrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. We are still in single digits, though.

• Over the past three days, all broad indices stayed consistently above their 50-day moving averages. About 81% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day MAs.

• The market will stay in a confirmed uptrend till the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain consistently above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Upswing

The market is in a confirmed upswing.

• The MBI stayed green throughout the week, with the 4.5R numbers peaking mid-week.

• All broad indices are consistently above their 10-day MAs. About 73% of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.

• Swing Confidence is 50, indicating that the portfolio can take half the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Positive but worsening

• The overall market has positive but worsening momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line but below its 9-period moving average.

• Chemicals & Pharma are the strongest indices at present. All other positive indices (Power/Energy, Defence, Capital market, Metal, Realty) are having worsening momentum, indicating that they are in one or the other stage of a pullback.

• IT & Banks are the indices with negative & worsening momentum.

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A hard-money environment with limited conventional breakout/pullback setups, many of which are close to their earnings release. After a one-way bull swing of the past month of April, this pullback here could help upswinging stocks form healthy constructive chart structures.

Aggressive swing portfolios are almost back in cash, while conservative swing portfolios are, as usual, still waiting for more quality setups to emerge in the coming days.

After the generous market of the past few weeks, we are back to basics, where sloppily entering anywhere is swiftly getting punished. Leaving aside a few stocks that are still showing urgency, most are in one or the other stage of a pullback. Some of these will collapse & totally give away most of the up move, but a good number of these are still poised to let the volatility settle down further, and provide low-risk entry points with a potential for decent upsides.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Uptrend

⦿ Swing: Upswing (under strain)

⦿ Momentum: Positive & Improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• About 33% of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are better than those of last week's, but we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Uptrend

The current market is in a confirmed uptrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. We are still in the early single digits, though.

• Over the past three days, most broad indices stayed consistently above their 50-day moving averages. The Nifty 50 is still sideways with regard to its 50-day MA. About 75% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day MAs.

• The market will stay in a confirmed uptrend till the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain consistently above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Upswing (under strain)

The market is in an upswing under strain.

• While the MBI had closed last week with a warning day, it turned green again this week, although the 4.5R numbers were mostly below 400.

• Only the Smallcap & Microcap indices are consistently above their 10-day MAs. Less than 40% of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favouring the bulls, the 10% breadth is below the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 50, indicating that the portfolio can take half the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Positive & improving

• The overall market has positive & improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• Power/Energy, Defence, Capital market, Realty, Metals, Media, & Chemicals are the strongest indices at present.

• IT & Railways are the only indices with negative momentum.

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An easy-money environment with broad market participation, but only a handful of conventional breakout setups. A pause or pullback here would provide the market with a perfect opportunity to form healthy, constructive chart structures.

This one-way bull swing has had a positive impact on aggressive swing portfolios. The market has rewarded a sloppy, “enter-anywhere” trading style, giving beginner traders feedback that would prove detrimental to their portfolios under different conditions.

Conservative swing portfolios are still waiting for more quality setups to emerge in the coming days; maybe the coming week might prove more conducive to them.

Traders who lack confidence in their systems (or even worse, those who lack an entire system) are feeling left out, & are trying half-ripe setups & getting squatted back.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Uptrend

⦿ Swing: Upswing (under strain)

⦿ Momentum: Positive & Improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• About 30% of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are better than those of last week's, but we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Indian markets have experienced three distinct bear phases since 2017: the Post-Euphoria Correction (31 months, 2018–2020), the Inflation & Rate Hike Pivot (16 months, 2022–2023), and the current Structural Bear (17+ months, Oct 2024–present). The current phase has already surpassed the 2022-23 correction, with less than 25% of stocks above their 200-day moving average.

Trend → Uptrend

The current market is in a confirmed uptrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. We are still in the early single digits, though.

• Over the past three days, most broad indices stayed consistently above their 50-day moving averages. The Nifty 50 is still sideways with regard to its 50-day MA. About 69% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day MAs.

• The market will stay in a confirmed uptrend till the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain consistently above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Upswing (under strain)

The market is in an upswing under strain.

• While the MBI stayed green throughout, the 4.5R numbers were much calmer than last week’s 4-digit extravaganza. Ultimately, the MBI has closed this week with a warning day.

• Most broad indices stay consistently above their 10-day MAs. Less than half of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favouring the bulls, the 10% breadth is below the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 50, indicating that the portfolio can take half the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Positive & improving

• The overall market has positive & improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• Power/Energy, Defence, Capital market, Metals, Media, & Realty are the strongest indices at present.

• IT is the only index with negative & worsening momentum.

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An easy-money environment, with broad participation in the markets. Most stocks are still moving straight up without waiting to form conventional setups. Still, the market seems to need some more time to form a healthy number of constructive chart structures at the right sides of their respective bases.

Aggressive swing portfolios are making the most of this one-way bull swing, while conservative swing portfolios are still waiting for more quality setups to emerge in the coming days. Anyhow, all the swing traders participating in this upswing should follow strict risk management to handle the upcoming pullbacks.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Uptrend

⦿ Swing: Upswing

⦿ Momentum: Positive & Improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• About 30% of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are better than those of last week's, but we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Indian markets have experienced three distinct bear phases since 2017: the Post-Euphoria Correction (31 months, 2018–2020), the Inflation & Rate Hike Pivot (16 months, 2022–2023), and the current Structural Bear (17+ months, Oct 2024–present). The current phase has already surpassed the 2022-23 correction, with less than 25% of stocks above their 200-day moving average.

Trend → Uptrend

The current market is in a confirmed uptrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. We are still in the early single digits, though.

• Over the past three days, most broad indices stayed consistently above their 50-day moving averages. The Nifty 50 is still consistently below its 50-day MA. About 75% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day MAs.

• The market will stay in a confirmed uptrend till the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain consistently above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Confirmed Upswing

The market stays in a confirmed upswing.

• Most of the sessions in this truncated week had extremely strong 4.5R numbers. MBI stayed green throughout.

• All the broad indices stay consistently above their 10-day MAs. About 95% of the stocks are trading above their 10-day MA & 20-day MA, & for the second consecutive week, we stay overbought on very short-term timeframes. A consolidation/pullback would be most welcome here to improve the longevity of this upswing.

• Swing Confidence is 100, indicating that the portfolio can take the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Positive & improving

• The overall market now has positive but improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• Capital market, Power/Energy, Metals, Defence, Realty & Consumer durables are the strongest indices at present.

• There is no index with worsening momentum.

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An easy-money environment where we are seeing broad participation in the markets. Most stocks are still moving up straight from the lows, and some are breaking-out after forming conventional setups. Still, the market seems to need some more time to form healthy number of constructive chart structures at the right sides of their respective bases.

Conservative swing portfolios should be unhesitatingly participating in this upswing, with strict risk management to handle the upcoming pullbacks.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Early Uptrend

⦿ Swing: Confirmed Upswing

⦿ Momentum: Positive & Improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Less than one-fourth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are better than those of last week's, but we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Indian markets have experienced three distinct bear phases since 2017: the Post-Euphoria Correction (31 months, 2018–2020), the Inflation & Rate Hike Pivot (16 months, 2022–2023), and the current Structural Bear (17+ months, Oct 2024–present). The current phase has already surpassed the 2022-23 correction, with less than 25% of stocks above their 200-day moving average.

Trend → Early Uptrend

The current market is in an early uptrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. We are still in the early single digits, though.

• Over the past three days, the Smallcap & Microcap indices have stayed consistently above their 50-day moving averages. The Nifty 50 is still consistently below its 50-day MA. About 55% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day MAs.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain consistently above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Confirmed Upswing

The market is now in a confirmed upswing.

• This week, 4 out of the 5 sessions had extremely strong 4.5R numbers. MBI stayed green throughout.

• All the broad indices are now consistently above their 10-day MAs. About 95% of the stocks are trading above their 10-day MA. & around 90% of the stocks are trading above their 20-day MA, & we are now overbought on very short-term timeframes. A consolidation/pullback would be most welcome here to improve the longevity of this upswing.

• Swing Confidence is 100, indicating that the portfolio can take the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Positive & improving

• The overall market now has positive but improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• Power/Energy, Capital market, Metals & Consumer durables are the strongest indices at present.

• Pharma index is still having negative & worsening momentum.

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A hard-money environment where most stocks that are moving up are doing so straight from the very lows, or without forming any conventional setups. The market movement still continues to be heavily influenced by geopolitical news flow.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & wait for broader participation to start with constructive chart structures.

Aggressive swing traders would have taken intraday trades over the last 2 sessions, and would be looking to enter on Monday (provided it stays bullish) on shorter timeframes with the objective of partial booking during the day & overnight holding risk-free positions.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Less than one-fifth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are similar to those of last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Indian markets have experienced three distinct bear phases since 2017: the Post-Euphoria Correction (26 months, 2018–2020), the Inflation & Rate Hike Pivot (16 months, 2022–2023), and the current Structural Bear (17+ months, Oct 2024–present). The current phase has already surpassed the 2022-23 correction, with less than 20% of stocks above their 200-day moving average and no visible resolution yet.

Trend → Downtrend

The current market is in a downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days. The last two days saw the NNH value recover from -34% to -2%. Early signs, but we need follow-through.

• Over the past three days, all major indices have stayed consistently below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 16% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Looking at extreme historical lows in Net New Highs provides a decent benchmark for measuring true market stress. Since 2019, we’ve seen six such extremes. Most of these range between -24% and -35%. While nothing quite touches the absolute panic of the March 2020 Covid crash (-69%), the recent dips in March 2025 (-30%) and March 2026 (-34%) show serious underlying weakness. Historically, readings this low tend to mark zones where selling pressure is close to exhaustion.

Swing → Downswing

The market is still in a downswing.

• This week, truncated by holidays, only had 3 sessions. MBI started in deep red on the first day of the week, with extremely low 4.5R readings, and the next two days showed very strong breadth after a long time, but all we are doing is knocking on the door of the 10-day moving average again.

• Broad indices managed to edge above their 10-day moving averages, but most remain consistently below their 10-day MAs. What’s good news for the bulls is that more than 50% of the stocks are trading above their 10-day MA. Around 30% of the stocks are trading above their 20-day MA, & we need this value to improve to beyond 50%.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.

The best scenario for the bulls would be the market sustaining above the 10, with high RS stocks pausing to develop the right sides of their respective structures, followed by a broad-based confirmed upswing. Any of the other scenarios (again getting rejected from the 10, or rushing up too fast) would indicate a longer waiting time for conventional swing traders.

Momentum → Negative but improving

• The overall market has negative but improving momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line but above its 9-period moving average.

• Power index has positive momentum.

• Pharma, PSE, Defence & Banking indices are still having negative & worsening momentum.

While the Power/Energy index is outperforming the broader market, the IT index seems to have completed its bottom formation & is moving ahead in the price cycle. The Metal index is showing relative outperformance.

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A hard-money environment where structural breakouts are tough to find, and a handful of stocks that are moving up are doing so without forming any conventional setups. The market movement continues to be heavily influenced by geopolitical news flow.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & wait for broader participation to start with constructive chart structures.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Less than one-fifth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are lower than those of last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

The current market is in a clear downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, all major indices have stayed consistently below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 12% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market is in a downswing.

• The MBI remained red throughout the week, with subdued 4.5R readings, indicating limited broader participation. As every week, there were two days (Tuesday & Wednesday) of a technical bounce, but it was insufficient to alter the bearishness significantly.

• Broad indices managed to peep above their 10-day moving averages, but are not consistently above or below their 10-day MAs. Less than one-fourth of the stocks are trading above their 10-day MA.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.

Momentum → Negative & worsening

• The overall market has negative & worsening momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• No index has positive momentum.

• Railways, Media & IT indices are having negative but improving momentum.

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A hard-money environment where structural breakouts are tough to find, and the stocks that are moving up are doing so without forming any conventional setups. The market movement is heavily influenced by geopolitical news flow.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & wait for broader participation to start with constructive chart structures.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Less than one-fifth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are similar to those of last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

The current market is in a clear downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, all major indices have stayed consistently below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 15% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market is in a downswing.

• The MBI remained red throughout the week, with subdued 4.5R readings, indicating limited broader participation. As every week, there was one single day (Wednesday) of a technical bounce, but that was insufficient to alter the bearishness significantly.

• Broad indices are consistently below their 10-day moving averages. About one-fourth of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.

Momentum → Negative & worsening

• The overall market has negative & worsening momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• Power is the only index with positive momentum.

• Railways & IT indices are having negative but improving momentum.

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A hard-money environment strongly in a bear grip. There are no structural breakouts nor any conventional setups. The market movement is heavily influenced by geopolitical news flow.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash. Survival is success.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Less than one-fifth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are even lower than last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

The current market is in a clear downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, all major indices have stayed consistently below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 15% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market is in a downswing.

• The MBI remained red throughout the week, with subdued 4.5R readings, indicating limited broader participation. There was one single day (Tuesday) of a technical bounce, but that was insufficient to alter the bearishness in any meaningful way.

• Broad indices are consistently below their 10-day moving averages. Less than 1/5 of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.

Momentum → Negative & worsening

• The overall market has negative & worsening momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• There is no index with positive & improving momentum. Railways & IT indices are having negative but improving momentum.

• Pharma & Power have positive but worsening momentum.

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A hard-money environment where structural breakouts are tough to find, and the stocks that are moving up are doing so without forming any conventional setups. The market movement is heavily influenced by geopolitical news flow.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & wait for broader participation to start with constructive chart structures.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Less than one-fourth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are even lower than last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

The current market is in a clear downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, all major indices have stayed consistently below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 20% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market is in a downswing.

• The MBI remained red throughout the truncated week, with subdued 4.5R readings, indicating limited broader participation. There was one single day (Thursday) of a technical bounce, but that was insufficient to alter the bearishness in any meaningful way.

• Broad indices are consistently below their 10-day moving averages. Less than 1/4 of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.

Momentum → Negative & worsening

• The overall market has negative & worsening momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• Defence is the only index with positive & improving momentum. Railways & IT indices are having negative but improving momentum.

• PSUbanks, Metal, Pharma, Power, PSE & Energy have positive but worsening momentum.

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A hard-money environment where structural breakouts are tough to find. Some stocks are moving up without any conventional setups, and most of these are lacking follow-through.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & start deploying pilot positions only if the watchlist shows some strength.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Positive & improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about one-fourth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are lesser than last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

The current market is now in a downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have stayed consistently below their 50-day moving averages. About 35% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages, but, favoring the bulls, the 50% breadth is above the 200% breadth.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market is in a downswing.

• The MBI stayed red throughout the week with subdued 4.5R numbers, clearly depicting a lack of broader participation.

• Broad indices have still not stayed consistently above or below their 10-day moving averages. Less than 1/3 of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.

Momentum → Positive & improving

• The overall market has positive & improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average. Nifty Next50 is the leading index.

• PSUBanks, Power, Metals, Energy, Consumer durables, & PSE are the relatively stronger sectors at the moment, as they have positive & improving momentum.

• The Realty & IT indices are having negative & worsening momentum.

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A hard-money environment where conventional setups are tough to find and structural breakouts are absent.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & start deploying pilot positions only if the watchlist shows some strength.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Sideways

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Positive & improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 28% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are almost similar to last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Sideways

The current market trend can be best described as sideways.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have not remained consistently negative or positive for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have not stayed consistently above or below their 50-day moving averages. About 35% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages, but, favoring the bulls, the 50% breadth is above the 200% breadth.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market is in a downswing.

• The week started in the red, followed by a mild upmove that led to the MBI turning green, but thereafter the action was weak, and the MBI eventually closed the week in the red.

• Broad indices have not stayed consistently above or below their 10-day moving averages. Less than 1/3 of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is below the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.

Momentum → Positive & improving

• The overall market has positive & improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average.

• PSUBanks, power, energy, consumer durables, metals & PSE are the relatively stronger sectors at the moment, as they have positive & improving momentum.

• The IT index is having negative & worsening momentum.

  

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A hard-money environment where conventional setups are tough to find and structural breakouts are absent.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & start deploying pilot positions only if the watchlist shows some strength.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Sideways

⦿ Swing: Sideways

⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 28% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are almost similar to last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Sideways

The current market trend can be best described as sideways.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have not remained consistently negative or positive for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have not stayed consistently above or below their 50-day moving averages. About 38% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages, but, favoring the bulls, the 50% breadth is above the 200% breadth.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Sideways

The market is in a sideways swing state.

• The week started with a strong gap-up, and the MBI turned green, but thereafter each day had progressively lower 4.5R numbers, with the MBI eventually closing the week in the red.

• Broad indices have not stayed consistently above or below their 10-day moving averages. Less than half of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is below the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 25, indicating that the portfolio can take only the minimum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Negative but improving

• The overall market has negative but improving momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line but above its 9-period moving average.

• Power, energy, media, defence, infra & auto are the relatively stronger sectors at the moment, as they have positive & improving momentum. The momentum is still positive but worsening in Metals, PSUBanks & Oil/Gas.

• IT & FMCG are having negative & worsening momentum.

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A hard-money environment where setups are tough to find and structural breakouts are absent.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & start deploying pilot positions only if the watchlist shows some strength.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Upswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 28% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are marginally better than last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

The market remains in a downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have consistently remained below their 50-day moving averages. About 32% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages, but, favoring the bulls, the 50% breadth is above the 200% breadth.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Upswing

The market is in an upswing.

• The MBI started this week in the red, but bounced with huge strength on Tuesday (3 Feb), with the 4.5R numbers in 4 digits, after a trade deal between India and the US was announced (as usual on social media). The euphoria seems to have quickly settled as we end the week with double-digit 4.5R numbers, but the MBI still stays in the green.

• Broad indices are sustaining consistently above their 10-day moving averages. More than half of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is above the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 50, indicating that the portfolio can take half the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Negative but improving

• The overall market has negative but improving momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line but above its 9-period moving average.

• Metals, Commodities, PSE & Power are the stronger sectors at the moment. These have positive + improving momentum.

• Defence, Pharma & IT are having negative & worsening momentum.

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A hard-money environment with very selective setups and few structural breakouts.

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash till the non-event of the union budget gets over, & start deploying pilot positions only if next week follows through.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Sideways / Early Upswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 25% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are slightly better than last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

The market remains in a downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, all major indices have consistently remained below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 21% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages, and not favoring the bulls, the 50% breadth is below the 200% breadth.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Sideways/Early Upswing

The market stays in a downswing. There are very early signs of an early upswing.

• The MBI stayed red throughout the week. A significant bounce was witnessed on Wednesday (28 Jan) with the 4.5R numbers in 4 digits, but this did not get any follow-through.

• Broad indices are in the process of sustaining consistently above their 10-day moving averages. Almost more than half of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is above the 20% breadth. This is a very early sign of improving times. We need follow-through, else this too will fade.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take on any open risk.

Momentum → Negative & worsening

• The overall market has negative & worsening momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line & its 5-period moving average.

• Defense, PSE & IT are the stronger sectors at the moment. These have positive + improving momentum.

• The positive momentum of Metals, PSUBnaks & Commodities is weakening now.

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A no-money environment with hardly any setup or structural breakouts

Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash and avoid being influenced by market wizards & super traders.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 21% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are much lower than last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

Last week’s downtrend has worsened further.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, all major indices have consistently remained below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 13% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages, and not favoring the bulls, the 50% breadth is below the 200% breadth.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market stays in a downswing.

• The MBI stayed red throughout the week. Brief oversold levels also failed to produce a significant bounce.

• All broad indices have remained consistently below their 10-day moving averages. Only approximately 14% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take on any open risk.

Momentum → Negative & worsening

• The overall market has negative & worsening momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line & its 5-period moving average. The values are now larger than previous such instances, all the way back to March 2025.

• Among the less weak sectoral indices, Metal, PSU Bank, & Commodities are also showing worsening momentum.

• No broad or sectoral index has improving momentum.

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A hard-money environment with very stock-specific moves, lacking a broader participation.

Conservative swing portfolios should stay in cash, but alert & prepared for an upswing, if & when it begins.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Downtrend

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 30% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are lower than last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Downtrend

Last week’s sideways trend appears to have now settled back down into a downtrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have consistently remained below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 24% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages, and not favoring the bulls, the 50% breadth is below the 200% breadth.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market stays in a downswing.

• The MBI began the week in the red, peaked midway for 2 days (still below 400), and again ended in red.

• All broad indices have remained consistently below their 10-day moving averages. Approximately 22% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is below the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take on any open risk.

Momentum → Negative but improving

• The overall market has negative but improving momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line but has crossed its 5-period moving average. The values are still small and not conclusive.

• Among strong sectoral indices, Metal, PSUbank, Capital market, IT, Commodities, & PSE have positive & improving momentum.

• Auto has positive but worsening momentum, while Pharma, Infra, FMCG & Consumer durables are some sectors that have negative but worsening momentum.

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A no-money environment with widespread breakdown of swing-friendly structures from last week.

Conservative swing portfolios should have booked whatever they were holding, and should now be back in cash.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Sideways

⦿ Swing: Downswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 32% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are lower than last week's, and we remain below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Sideways

Last week’s uptrend appears to have weakened to a more sideways trend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have not remained consistently negative or positive for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have not consistently remained above or below their 50-day moving averages; only about 24% of all stocks have remained above theirs.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Downswing

The market is now in a downswing.

• The MBI began the week in the green, peaked midway (still below 400), and ended in deep red.

• For now, broad indices are not consistently above or below their 10-day moving averages. Approximately 17% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is below the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take on any open risk.

Momentum → Negative & worsening

• Most broad indices have negative & worsening momentum, as their momentum scores are below the zero line and their 9-period moving averages. The values are still on the lower side and not conclusive.

• Among strong sectoral indices, Metal, PSUbank, Commodities, & Auto still have positive momentum, but it is worsening.

• Defence & consumer durables are the only sectors that have positive & improving momentum.

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A relatively swing-friendly environment with increasing participation from multiple sectors & stocks.

Conservative swing portfolios that were deploying starter positions till last week have finally got good closings in watchlist stocks, and positive portfolio feedback, & can now actively seek trade oppurtunities.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Uptrend

⦿ Swing: Upswing

⦿ Momentum: Positive & improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 38% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are slightly better than last week's, and we remain below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Uptrend

The market is now in an uptrend.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have stayed consistently positive for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have remained consistently above their 50-day moving averages; about 40% of all stocks have remained above theirs.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Upswing

The market is now in a confirmed upswing.

• The MBI began the week in the red, but as the week progressed, the 4.5R numbers were stronger each day. The week ended on a strong note (400+), though we have yet to see days with 1000+ numbers.

• All broad indices are now consistently above their 10-day moving averages. Approximately 67% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is (just) above the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 100, indicating that the portfolio can take the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Positive & improving

• Most broad indices have positive, improving momentum, as their momentum scores are above the zero line and their 9-period moving averages. The values are still on the lower side and not conclusive.

• Among strong sectoral indices, Metal, PSUbank, Commodities, Auto, and Oil & Gas are the top performers.

• Worsening sectors include Pharma & FMCG.

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A hard-money environment with early signs of bullish recovery. Moves are very stock-specific & sector-specific (read: ‘Metals’), and a broader particiaption is still lacking.

Conservative swing portfolios can start deploying starter positions to assess whether the follow-through for a bear-market rally is there.

⦿ Bias: Bear

⦿ Trend: Sideways / weak uptrend

⦿ Swing: Upswing

⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving

Bias → Bear

From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.

• Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.

• Only about 36% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are similar to last week's, and we remain below the 50% mark.

• When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.

Trend → Sideways / weak uptrend

The market trend can now be described as sideways.

• The 52-week Net New Highs have stayed consistently positive for the past three days.

• Over the past three days, most major indices have not remained consistently above or below their 50-day moving averages; less than one-third of all stocks have remained above theirs.

• The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.

Swing → Upswing

The market is now in an upswing, albeit a weak one.

• The MBI stayed green throughout the week, but 400+ 4.5R numbers were visible only on Monday. The upswing can continue next week if we see follow-through.

• All broad indices are now consistently above their 10-day moving averages. Approximately 54% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is above the 20% breadth.

• Swing Confidence is 75, indicating that the portfolio can take less than the maximum permissible open risk.

Momentum → Negative but improving

• Most broad indices have negative but improving momentum, as their momentum score is below the zero line but above their 9-period moving averages. The values are still too low to draw any conclusions from.

• Amid this negative momentum, some sectoral indices are showing signs of improvement. Metal, Commodities & Oil&Gas are the top performers.

• Worsening sectors include Consumption, Capital Market, & PVTBank.

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