A hard-money environment where structural breakouts are tough to find, and the stocks that are moving up are doing so without forming any conventional setups. The market movement is heavily influenced by geopolitical news flow.
Conservative swing portfolios should remain in cash, & wait for broader participation to start with constructive chart structures.
⦿ Bias: Bear
⦿ Trend: Downtrend
⦿ Swing: Downswing
⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening
Bias → Bear
From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.
Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.
Less than one-fifth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are similar to those of last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.
When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.
Trend → Downtrend
The current market is in a clear downtrend.
The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently negative for the past three days.
Over the past three days, all major indices have stayed consistently below their 50-day moving averages. Only about 15% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day moving averages.
The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.
Swing → Downswing
The market is in a downswing.
The MBI remained red throughout the week, with subdued 4.5R readings, indicating limited broader participation. As every week, there was one single day (Wednesday) of a technical bounce, but that was insufficient to alter the bearishness significantly.
Broad indices are consistently below their 10-day moving averages. About one-fourth of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.
Swing Confidence is 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.
Momentum → Negative & worsening
The overall market has negative & worsening momentum, as the momentum score is below the zero line and its 9-period moving average.
Power is the only index with positive momentum.
Railways & IT indices are having negative but improving momentum.
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