An easy-money environment where we are seeing broad participation in the markets. Most stocks are still moving up straight from the lows, and some are breaking-out after forming conventional setups. Still, the market seems to need some more time to form healthy number of constructive chart structures at the right sides of their respective bases.
Conservative swing portfolios should be unhesitatingly participating in this upswing, with strict risk management to handle the upcoming pullbacks.
⦿ Bias: Bear
⦿ Trend: Early Uptrend
⦿ Swing: Confirmed Upswing
⦿ Momentum: Positive & Improving
Bias → Bear
From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.
Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.
Less than one-fourth of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are better than those of last week's, but we remain well below the 50% mark.
When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.
Indian markets have experienced three distinct bear phases since 2017: the Post-Euphoria Correction (31 months, 2018–2020), the Inflation & Rate Hike Pivot (16 months, 2022–2023), and the current Structural Bear (17+ months, Oct 2024–present). The current phase has already surpassed the 2022-23 correction, with less than 25% of stocks above their 200-day moving average.
Trend → Early Uptrend
The current market is in an early uptrend.
The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. We are still in the early single digits, though.
Over the past three days, the Smallcap & Microcap indices have stayed consistently above their 50-day moving averages. The Nifty 50 is still consistently below its 50-day MA. About 55% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day MAs.
The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain consistently above their 50-day moving averages.
Swing → Confirmed Upswing
The market is now in a confirmed upswing.
This week, 4 out of the 5 sessions had extremely strong 4.5R numbers. MBI stayed green throughout.
All the broad indices are now consistently above their 10-day MAs. About 95% of the stocks are trading above their 10-day MA. & around 90% of the stocks are trading above their 20-day MA, & we are now overbought on very short-term timeframes. A consolidation/pullback would be most welcome here to improve the longevity of this upswing.
Swing Confidence is 100, indicating that the portfolio can take the maximum permissible open risk.
Momentum → Positive & improving
The overall market now has positive but improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average.
Power/Energy, Capital market, Metals & Consumer durables are the strongest indices at present.
Pharma index is still having negative & worsening momentum.
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