A relatively hard-money environment with choppy undertones. Many conventional pullback setups are breaking out & some of them are sustaining, while others are giving up most of the gains.
Aggressive swing traders with swift profit booking & faster churns are making the most of this volatile & weak upswing.
⦿ Bias: Bear
⦿ Trend: Uptrend
⦿ Swing: Upswing (weak)
⦿ Momentum: Positive but worsening
Bias → Bear
From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.
Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.
About 36% of all stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are similar to those of last week's, and we remain well below the 50% mark.
When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.
Trend → Uptrend
The current market is in an uptrend.
The 52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days, but still in single digits.
Over the past three days, almost all broad indices (except the Nifty) stayed consistently above their 50-day moving averages. About 57% of all stocks have remained above their 50-day MAs.
The market will stay in an uptrend till the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain consistently above their 50-day moving averages.
Swing → Neutral
We are neither here nor there.
The MBI has stayed green since last week, with a few warning days in between, but the 4.5R numbers have all been below 400. The EM score is struggling to cross above 15, but is not going down either.
Most broad indices (Nifty 50, Next 50, Midcap 150) are consistently below their 10-day MAs. Only about 40% of the stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages.
Swing Confidence is still 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.
Momentum → Positive but worsening
The overall market has positive but worsening momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line but below its 9-period moving average.
Media & IT indices have with positive & improving momentum. All other positive indices (Metal, Pharma, Power/Energy, Chemicals) are having worsening momentum, indicating that they are in one or the other stage of a pullback.
Banks & Consumer durables are negative but improving.
That’s all for this week. If you'd like to know when I publish something new, subscribe to my newsletter, and you'll receive the latest directly in your inbox.
I have watched all your youtube videos and reading all post on substack ,how to contact you for a short conversation?
Sir how to contact you?