A relatively swing-friendly environment with increasing participation from multiple sectors & stocks.
Conservative swing portfolios that were deploying starter positions till last week have finally got good closings in watchlist stocks, and positive portfolio feedback, & can now actively seek trade oppurtunities.
⦿ Bias: Bear
⦿ Trend: Uptrend
⦿ Swing: Upswing
⦿ Momentum: Positive & improving
Bias → Bear
From a long-term perspective, we remain in a bear market.
Over the past month, more than 50% of stocks have remained below their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Hence, we stay in a bear market.
Only about 38% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average. This week's numbers are slightly better than last week's, and we remain below the 50% mark.
When more than 50% of stocks go above their 200-day SMA, we will again enter a transitional market. If this percentage stays above 50 for a month, we will finally enter a bull market.
Trend → Uptrend
The market is now in an uptrend.
The 52-week Net New Highs have stayed consistently positive for the past three days.
Over the past three days, most major indices have remained consistently above their 50-day moving averages; about 40% of all stocks have remained above theirs.
The market will enter a confirmed uptrend only if the 52-week highs consistently stay above the 52-week lows, PLUS more than 50% of stocks remain above their 50-day moving averages.
Swing → Upswing
The market is now in a confirmed upswing.
The MBI began the week in the red, but as the week progressed, the 4.5R numbers were stronger each day. The week ended on a strong note (400+), though we have yet to see days with 1000+ numbers.
All broad indices are now consistently above their 10-day moving averages. Approximately 67% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth is (just) above the 20% breadth.
Swing Confidence is 100, indicating that the portfolio can take the maximum permissible open risk.
Momentum → Positive & improving
Most broad indices have positive, improving momentum, as their momentum scores are above the zero line and their 9-period moving averages. The values are still on the lower side and not conclusive.
Among strong sectoral indices, Metal, PSUbank, Commodities, Auto, and Oil & Gas are the top performers.
Worsening sectors include Pharma & FMCG.
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