MarketQuadrant 02/2025
Weekly market outlook
→ No-money market
→ Anticipating a reversal day (but overall bearish continuation)
→ Stay in all-cash. Wait for a gap-down & undercut for reversal day trading.
⦿ Bias: Negative
⦿ Breadth: Weak & Oversold
⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening
⦿ Swing: Confirmed Downswing
Bias → Negative
After turning briefly positive last week, the bias is now negative.
52-week Net New Highs are negative for past 3 consecutive days.
The Monthly (20-day) NNH are also negative for past 3 consecutive days.
All indices are below the 50-day MA for past 3 consecutive days.
Breadth → Weak & Oversold
█ Breadth with regard to extension: The % of stocks above the 10-day MA & 20-day MA are below the 50% mark, & in oversold territory, with till some more scope to touch one-digit figures.
The % of stocks above the 50-day MA stay below the 50% bullish threshold for 4 weeks now.
The % of stocks above the 200-day MA are again below the 50% threshold. In the coming days, sustenance of these levels for more than a month can confirm the transition of the ongoing bull market into a bear one.
█ Breadth with regard to participation: Stocks 15% up in 5 days have now dried down to historic lows. This shows that there is practically no broader market participation on the bullish side.
Stocksgeeks MBI began this week with a red day, followed by a bounce, & progressively bearish days since then. We have ended the week with single digit 4R numbers, which are slightly higher than the ones we got on 6th Jan. The 20R & 50R numbers have turned red again, which indicates that we are in a downtrend on all timeframes. A gap-down open on Monday will set the stage for an immediate technical reversal.
Momentum → Negative & worsening
Most broad & sectoral indices are having negative & worsening momentum.
IT is the only index with positive & improving momentum.
FMCG & Oil/Gas have positive but worsening momentum.
Swing → Confirmed Downswing
Most broad & sectoral indices are in a confirmed downswing.
FMCG is still in a confirmed upswing. Auto, Pharma & Oil/Gas are in an early downswing. IT index is an early upswing.
Swing Confidence is 0, which means that the portfolio should not be having any open risk.
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