MarketQuadrant 04/2025
Weekly market outlook
→ No-money market
→ Anticipating choppiness till the Union Budget.
→ Swing portfolios should continue staying in all-cash. Intraday/BTST opportunities in IPO & EP names can be taken.
⦿ Bias: Negative
⦿ Breadth: Weak (& near oversold)
⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving
⦿ Swing: Confirmed Downswing
Bias → Negative
After turning neutral last week, the bias is now negative.
52-week Net New Highs are negative for past 3 consecutive days.
The Monthly (20-day) NNH are negative for past 3 consecutive days.
All indices are below the 50-day MA for past 3 consecutive days.
Breadth → Weak
█ Breadth with regard to extension: The % of stocks above the 10-day MA & 20-day MA stay well below the 50% mark. As they keep getting oversold over & over again, reversals keep on becoming weak.
The % of stocks above the 50-day MA stay below the 50% bullish threshold for 6 weeks now.
The % of stocks above the 200-day MA are sustaining below the 50% threshold for 3 weeks now. Sustenance of these levels for more than a month can confirm this ongoing transition of the bull market into a bear one.
█ Breadth with regard to participation: Stocks 15% up in 5 days stay dried down, except for a burst on Monday that lacked any follow-through. This shows a significant lack of broader market participation on the bullish side.
Stocksgeeks MBI has stayed in the red trend for 3 weeks now. In between, we have had moderate 4R numbers, which have not been strong enough to turn the MBI colour green yet. The 20R & 50R numbers continue to stay red, which indicates the continuation of downtrend on all timeframes.
Momentum → Negative but improving
All broad indices are having negative but improving momentum.
IT, Defence, Oil/Gas & Realty have negative & worsening momentum.
Commodities, Metals, Power & PSUbank indices are having positive & improving momentum.
Swing → Confirmed Downswing
Most broad & sectoral indices are in a confirmed downswing.
IT & Metal are in an early upswing. Commodities are in a confirmed upswing.
Swing Confidence is 0, which means that the portfolio should not be having any open risk.
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