MarketQuadrant 05/2025
Weekly market outlook
→ No-money market transitioning into a hard-money market
→ Anticipating bullish continuation of the counter-trend rally.
→ Conservative swing portfolios should continue staying in all-cash, but ready to deploy.
⦿ Bias: Negative
⦿ Breadth: Weak (but improving)
⦿ Momentum: Negative but improving
⦿ Swing: Early Upswing
Bias → Negative
The bias stays negative for the 2nd week now.
52-week Net New Highs are negative for past 3 consecutive days.
The Monthly (20-day) NNH are no longer negative for past 3 consecutive days.
All indices are below the 50-day MA for past 3 consecutive days.
Breadth → Weak (but improving)
█ Breadth with regard to extension: The % of stocks above the 10-day MA is approaching the 50% mark, while the % of stocks above the 20-day MA are still well below the 50% mark. As the 10 line is above the 20, we are in an upswing.
The % of stocks above the 50-day MA stay below the 50% bullish threshold for 7 weeks now.
The % of stocks above the 200-day MA are sustaining below the 50% threshold for 4 weeks now. Sustenance of these levels for more than a month (i.e. one more week) can confirm this ongoing transition of the bull market into a bear one.
█ Breadth with regard to participation: Stocks 15% up in 5 days stay dried down through the week, except for the budget day (Saturday), where we have witnessed a burst. If this burst gets follow-through on Monday, we can infer improved market participation on the bullish side.
Stocksgeeks MBI has stayed in the red trend for 4 weeks now. We had 2 bullish days in between, but that was insufficient for a stance change in the MBI day color. The 20R numbers are improving now & some more nudge might push them into green territory. The 50R numbers continue to stay red, which indicates the continuation of downtrend on higher timeframes.
Momentum → Negative but improving
All broad indices & most sectoral indices are having negative but improving momentum.
IT index has negative & worsening momentum.
Consumption & FMCG are having positive & improving momentum.
Swing → Early Upswing
Most broad & sectoral indices are in a early upswing.
Commodities, Finance, Banks & FMCG are in a confirmed upswing. IT & metal are in a confirmed downswing.
Swing Confidence is 25, which means that the portfolio can take the minimum possible open risk.
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