We are in a confirmed upswing within an uptrending bear market, so the strategy is to initiate new positions with strict stop-losses to deal with an impending pullback.
⦿ Bias: Bear market
⦿ Trend: Uptrend
⦿ Swing: Upswing
⦿ Momentum: Positive & improving
Bias → Bear Market
From a long-term perspective, we are currently in a bear market.
Over 50% of stocks have remained below the 200-day moving average (MA) for the past 15 weeks.
Sustenance of these levels for more than a month has already confirmed that we are in a full-fledged bear market.
We are much better than where we were last month, but there’s still a long way to go.
Trend → Uptrend
After staying sideways for the past three weeks, we are now in an uptrend.
52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days.
Most broad indices have remained consistently above their 50-day moving averages for the past three days. After sustaining below their 50-day MA for the past 16 weeks, over 50% of stocks are now above their 50-day moving average.
The trend has now shifted into positive territory as the gap between the 52-week highs and lows has narrowed and reversed, and indices have sustained above their 50-day moving average.
Swing → Confirmed Upswing
We are now in a confirmed upswing.
After a turbulent last week, MBI has stayed consistently green throughout this week. While the 4.5R numbers have been on the higher side, they have been decreasing over the past four green days. Watchlist feedback seems less enthusiastic than the indices.
All the broad indices are now above their 10-day moving averages, and over 80% of stocks are now above them. More stocks are above their 10-day moving average than above their 20-day moving average. We are reaching overbought levels on the swing level, & might need some cool down in the coming week.
Swing Confidence is 50, indicating that the portfolio can take half of the maximum permissible open risk.
Momentum → Positive & improving
As the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average, most broad and sectoral indices have positive & improving momentum.
Capital Market, Defense, Tourism, Finance & PvtBank indices are notable ones having positive & improving momentum.
EMS, Fertilizers, Housing Finance, Sugar, Hospitals, and Life insurance sectors are notable ones that have positive and improving momentum.
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