MarketQuadrant 28/2025
Weekly market outlook
We are witnessing improving momentum in an upswing under strain within an uptrending bear market.
A hard-money environment with stock-specific follow throughs. Conservative swing portfolios can stay in cash, while aggressive ones should hold with strict trailing stop losses.
⦿ Bias: Bear market
⦿ Trend: Uptrend
⦿ Swing: Upswing under strain
⦿ Momentum: Positive and improving
Bias → Bear Market
From a long-term perspective, we are still in a bear market.
Over 50% of stocks have remained below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for 27 weeks.
We are nearing the 50% mark, with approximately 46 percent of stocks now positioned above their 200-day simple moving average.
When the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA rises over 50, we will enter a bear-to-bull transitional phase; if it remains above 50 for at least a month, we will be in a bull market.
Trend → Uptrend
The market has been in an uptrend for the past 9 weeks.
52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. While the new 52-week lows have stalled out, the new 52-week highs refuse to improve. They need to move up so that we can enter a stronger uptrend.
For the past three days, all major indices have consistently remained above their 50-day moving averages, and about 65% of stocks have stayed above their 50-day moving averages.
The trend will turn negative again if the 52-week highs go below the 52-week lows and more than 50% of stocks fall below their 50-day moving averages.
Swing → Upswing under strain
The market continues its half-hearted upswing.
The MBI, continuing from last week, stayed green throughout the week. The upswing had two 400+ days, but eventually ended the week with a warning day. The upcoming week will be crucial to determine whether the MBI finally turns red or if the warning day was just a blip.
Other than the Microcap index, none of the broad indices remained consistently above their 10-day moving averages. Nifty & Midcap indices are below their 10-day moving averages. Less than 50% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favoring the bulls, fewer stocks are above their 10-day moving average than their 20-day moving average.
Swing Confidence is at 0, indicating that the portfolio should not take any open risk.
Momentum → Positive & improving
The majority of broad indices still have positive but (barely) improving momentum, as the momentum score stayed above the zero line and above its 9-period moving average.
Most sectoral indices exhibit worsening momentum. The Realty & IT indices have negative and worsening momentum. Tourism, Consumer Durables, Commodities, and Power are the top indices in terms of the momentum score.
Agrochem, Pumps, AMC, HVAC & Transformers are notable custom indices with positive and improving momentum.
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