We are witnessing improving momentum in an upswing within an uptrending bear-to-bull transitional market.
Don't get fooled by the greenery of this market quadrant. Read the article & see for yourself how 'weak' this green is.A hard-money environment with stock-specific follow-throughs. Conservative swing portfolios can hold relatively strong stocks with strict stop losses.
⦿ Bias: Transitional
⦿ Trend: Uptrend (weak)
⦿ Swing: Upswing (weak)
⦿ Momentum: Positive & Improving (weak)
Bias → Transitional (Bear-to-Bull)
From a long-term perspective, we are now transitioning from a bear to a bull market.
After staying below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the past 7 weeks, more than 50% of the stocks moved up the 200 SMA this week, and the market can now be said to have entered a bear-to-bull transitional phase.
About 52% of stocks are positioned above their 200-day simple moving average.
When the percentage of stocks above the 200-day SMA remains above 50 for at least a month, we will be in a bull market. If, instead, it stays below 50 for a month, we will return to a bear market.
Trend → Uptrend
For the past three weeks, the market has been in an uptrend.
52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days. It’s worth noting that while the NNH values are positive, they have remained very low all this year so far. Hence, the trend, although an uptrend on paper, feels more like a sideways phase with not many stocks giving sustainable/tradable upmoves.
Over the past three days, all major indices have remained consistently above their 50-day moving average, with about 57% of all stocks staying above their 50-day moving averages.
The market will stay in a confirmed uptrend if the 52-week highs consistently remain above the 52-week lows and more than 50% of stocks stay above their 50-day moving averages.
Swing → Upswing
Over the past two weeks, the market has been in an upswing.
The MBI stayed green throughout this week, but the 4.5R numbers were able to exceed 400 only once. The swing has been half-hearted from its onset, and it has not gained any strength till now.
All broad indices remained consistently above their 10-day moving averages. More than 50% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and, not favoring the bulls, the 10% breadth has crossed under the 20% breadth.
Swing Confidence is 100, indicating that the portfolio can take the maximum permissible open risk.
Momentum → Positive & Improving
Most broad indices now have positive & improving momentum, as the momentum score is above the zero line and its 9-period moving average. Just eyeballing the present momentum bars with those in the May-June 2025 rally will reveal that the momentum score's value is only slightly positive, and hence not much should be read into it.
Most sectoral indices also exhibit positive & improving momentum. Metal, PSUbank, Defence, Power, and Pharma have positive & improving momentum.
Ship-building, NBFC, Railways, and EMS are notable custom indices with positive momentum.
That’s all for this week. If you'd like to know when I publish something new, subscribe to my newsletter, and you'll receive the latest directly in your inbox.
Can we use your indicators on our trading view account?
If yes please guide.