MarketQuadrant 48/2024
Weekly market outlook
→ Hard-money market ready to transition into either direction
→ Anticipating a pullback, or at least some consolidation before a bullish continuation
→ Deployed portfolios should keep holding, while all-cash traders should wait a bit for more confirmation
⦿ Swing: Early Upswing
⦿ Momentum: Positive & improving
⦿ Breadth: Improving
⦿ Bias: Positive
Swing → Early Upswing
Most broad indices are in an early upswing. The Nifty 50 & Nifty next 50 are in a confirmed upswing.
Finance, IT, Realty & Service indices are looking the strongest in the list of many sectoral indices in a confirmed upswing.
Swing Confidence is 75, which means that the portfolio can take less than the maximum permissible open risk.
Momentum → Positive & improving
Almost all broad & sectoral indices are having positive & improving momentum.
IT is the only index with positive but worsening momentum.
There is no index with negative momentum.
Breadth → Improving
█ Breadth with regard to extension: The % of stocks above the 10-day MA & 20-day MA are now strongly above the 50% bullish threshold. Another bullish day could see the shorter-term MAs getting close to oversold levels.
The % of stocks above the 50-day MA are sustaining below the 50% bullish threshold for the 9th week now. They are, however, are quite close to crossing over the midline.
The % of stocks above the 200-day MA have reclaimed the 50% threshold after staying below it for past 2 weeks. Had they stayed below 50 for at least one whole month, the transition of the ongoing bull market would have been confirmed into a bear one. But the bulls have got a new life here.
█ Breadth with regard to participation: Stocks 15% up in 5 days have been in the green all this week. Strong follow-throughs here have announced the return of the bulls.
Stocksgeeks MBI changed its trend & turned green mid-week. The 4R bursts were in late triple digits, but we have had stronger rallies in the past where this number had easily reached 4 digits. While the 20R is now green, the 50R numbers are stil red, indicating that we are still not completely out of the woods yet.
Bias → Positive
Currently, the bias is positive, after staying neutral last week.
52-week Net New Highs are positive for past 3 consecutive days.
The Monthly (20-day) NNH are also positive for past 3 consecutive days.
Most broad indices are still below the 50-day MA for past 3 consecutive days. The Microcap index is now sideways.
That’s all for this week. If you'd like to know when I publish something new, just subscribe to my newsletter and you'll get the latest sent direct to you.