⦿ Trend: Uptrend under pressure
⦿ Momentum: Negative & worsening
⦿ Breadth: Worsening
⦿ Bias: Negative
⦿ Swing: Downswing (0)
Trend → Uptrend under pressure
⦿ Most broad indices are now in an uptrend under pressure. Only the Nifty 50 is still in a confirmed uptrend.
⦿ Most sectoral/thematic indices are also in an uptrend under pressure, with Auto, IT & Pharma still strong.
⦿ Media & FMCG are the only indices in a downtrend.
Momentum → Negative & worsening
⦿ Most broad indices are having negative & worsening momentum. Only the large-cap Nifty & Next 50 are positive, although they are also worsening.
⦿ Now there is no index with positive & improving momentum. Most are having positive & worsening momentum.
⦿ Realty & Metal indices join FMCG, Finance, PVTbank & Media in the list of negative momentum.
Swing → Downswing
⦿ Majority of indices stay in a confirmed downswing.
⦿ While Nifty is in an early downswing, Smallcap 100 is in a confirmed downswing. Swing Confidence is 0, which means that the portfolio should not be having any open risk.
⦿ The overall weekly Swing Temperature stays cool, which means that new swing positions can be taken when the Swing Confidence improves.
Market breadth → Worsening
⦿ Breadth with regard to extension: The % of stocks above 10-, 20-, & 50-day MA are sustaining below 50% since last week. The % of stocks above 200-day MA also has reached the 50% mark, which is not a good sign. Stocks 15% up in 5 days are at their lowest values in past 1 year.
⦿ Breadth with regard to participation: Net breadth as per 4% advance & decline, after turning negative with a double digit down move, is back in the positive territory with a double-digit upmove. These are volatile times. Market breadth volume kept on increasing throughout this fall, & peaked with the day of the biggest fall. A high volume selloff is a cause of concern.
Bias → Negative
Currently, the bias is negative. It had been positive since April 2023 (with a couple of neutral days in late October 2023), that made this bull run 11 months old. Just for context, the post-Covid bull run was 20 months long (June 2020 to February 2022).
⦿ Majority of indices have stayed below the 50-day MA for past 3 consecutive days. Nifty & Next 50 indices are still positive.
⦿ 52-week Net New Highs have stayed negative for past 3 consecutive days.
⦿ On lower timeframes, both the 65-day NNH and the 20-day NNH are also negative for the past 3 consecutive days.
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It would be great and if you could explain your trading system ,with entry , exit rules rules etc. I am struggling to define a system
Thank You Sir!