MarketQuadrant CW36/2024
Weekly market outlook
⦿ Swing: Upswing under strain
⦿ Momentum: Positive but worsening
⦿ Breadth: Worsening
⦿ Bias: Positive
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⦿ Trend (positional): Confirmed Uptrend
Swing → Upswing under strain
⦿ Most broad indices are in an upswing under strain. Smallcap index is still in a confirmed upswing, while Nifty 50 is in an early downswing.
⦿ Most sectoral indices are in an early downswing.
⦿ Swing Confidence is 25, which means that the portfolio can take only the minimum permissible open risk.
Momentum → Positive but Worsening
⦿ Most broad indices are having positive but worsening momentum. The Microcap 250 index is having negative & worsening momentum.
⦿ Most sectoral indices, on the other hand, are having negative & worsening momentum.
⦿ Consumer durables, consumption, Finance, IT, Pharma & service are notable indices having positive (but worsening) momentum.
Breadth → Worsening
█ Breadth with regard to extension: The last day of the week saw the % of stocks above 10-day MA & 20-day MA going below the bullish threshold of 50.
The % of stocks above the 50-day MA are still in the bullish zone above 50%.
The % of stocks above 200-day MA are have dropped below the 80 level. They need to stay above 80 for a strong bullish rally.
Stocks 15% up in 5 days are no longer extended for 2 weeks now.
█ Breadth with regard to participation: The net breadth as per 4% advance & decline, after staying green throughout the week, ended just in the red after a bearish Friday.
The 5-day ratio is green (above 2.0), but its value is now decreasing.
The Market breadth volume stayed dried up throughout the first 4 sessions & didn’t cross above the 1.0 level even during the big red Friday, indicating selective participation in both directions.
Stocksgeeks MBI gave 3 consecutive green days this week, with the 4R column getting progressively stronger. The last day made sure that the MBI has ended the week neutral. Both the short-term (20 Chg) & medium-term trend strength (50 Chg) are weakening. So compared from last week, the breadth is worsening.
Bias → Positive
Currently, the bias is positive for 13 weeks now.
⦿ 52-week Net New Highs are positive for past 3 consecutive days.
⦿ All broad indices have stayed above the 50-day MA for past 3 consecutive days.
⦿ On lower timeframes, both the Quarterly (65-day) NNH and the Monthly (20-day) NNH are also positive for past 3 consecutive days.
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